Photo courtesy of Dan Slovitt
Let’s get down to it!
The previous post introduced some of what’s coming in the next few months (duncanScore 2.0), and here is some more detail on the first improvement now released.
Rates of Participation Decline With Age and Distance
As a general rule, the number of performances in any particular age group gets fewer as the groups get older beyond M-W 50. Also, Women tend to participate less than Men. The participation further declines fairly dramatically the longer the event. Think 10000m vs 100m) and with increases in difficulty/danger (hurdles/steeplechase vs the “flat” events).
But here’s the thing. There is an inherent weakness. Where there aren’t a lot of performances, the projected resulting output can be misleading. As you can imagine, it will be many more years before there will be enough performances for an accurate read of Women’s 95 Pole Vault in duncanScore. It’s not an issue for the vast majority of the results produced by duncanScore, but when we go beyond M85 and W80, sometimes the output can be a little “shakey”.
As I wrote in the previous post, in order to boost the “robustness” of these older age-groups I have added legitimate outdoor performances to bolster the duncanScore wherever I could find them. Currently all results are based upon 2013-2016 input from mastersrankings.com. But now for age-groups M75 and W75 and older I have added performances from:
- mastersrankings.com World rankings from 2017, 2018, and available 2019 rankings
- mastersrankings.com U.S. rankings from 2008-2012
- British rankings from Power of 10 2008-2012
- Martin Gasselsberger’s (the keeper of World rankings before John Seto) World rankings from 2008-2012.
More Than Double the Performances
By adding these other years and data sources, we have more than doubled the number of performances for these older age-groups, enhancing the quality of the Scores and percentiles.What’s also interesting (and good!), looking at results so far, this has usually meant only small changes. Most performances register a difference of perhaps 1 or at most 2 points in the percentile from before.
This is the first part of duncanScore 2.0 … a plan to enhance quality, usability and add useful features for you the Athletics competitor. Ultimately all events for these older age-groups will have the results from these additional data sources.
I have now completed Men’s and Women’s 100m and 200m and they are “live”.
By all means, if you are a Sprinter and 75 or older, have a look and see how your times stack up in version 2.0 with everyone else in the world in the 100m and 200m.
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