Final? Even Podium? 800m & 1500m

In the last post A WC Medal or Final Maybe? What It Takes – the Sprints  we talked about the percentile level of duncanSCORE it would take to make the final, or maybe even win a medal at a WMA Outdoor Championship in the Sprints (100m, 200m, 400m).

In general for the Sprints, you need a 92 percentile to stand on the podium. An 84 to race in the final.

Well, how about the Middle Distances? Is it the same or similar? Let’s have a look.

Like I did with the Sprints, I have taken the results from the last 4 WMA Outdoor World Championships (Sacramento 2011, Porto Alegre 2013, Lyon 2015, and Perth 2016).

As in the Sprints, for the 800 and 1500,  I isolated the times required (the slowest “q”)  to reach the final (unless the event went straight to final), and the time of the bronze medal winner. I used all age groups from M35/W35 to M75/W75 inclusive. Then I calculated the duncanSCORE percentile for each instance. Again, to eliminate anomalies, I discarded the top 3 and bottom 3 percentile instances in each Championship, then averaged the remaining results.

Preliminaries (as Semi-finals) are not an issue in mid distance at World Championships. During the last 4 WCs, only Lyon had any … 800 prelims/semi-finals for M50, M55, and M60.

Because the number of competitors in the final are slightly different (10-12 in the 800, and 15 in the 1500), the dSCORE percentiles are a bit different to reach the final. For the 1500, you generally need a 74 percentile, and the 800 usually requires 78.

But to climb up the podium is very consistent for Middle Distance. You need 91 percentile dSCORE in the 800m, and 90 percentile for the 1500m.

And you can determine where you are in the 800 and 1500 by getting your very own duncanSCORE. Go here

Track DE

In the next post we will cover the 5000 and 10000, and those events where the athletes insist on jumping over things while they run.

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